OTTAWA, April 26, 2017 — Conditions in Canada’s housing markets are showing some signs of improvement but the official overall rating from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will be held at “strong evidence of problematic conditions”.
On a quarterly basis, CMHC issues Housing Market Assessment (HMA) to provide Canadians with both expert and impartial insight and analysis, based on the best data available in Canada. This report acts as an “early warning system” for the country’s housing markets – an important tool supporting financial and housing market stability.
Report highlights:
- Overall rating to be held at “strong evidence of problematic conditions”.
- Evidence of overvaluation at the national level has been downgraded from strong to moderate. It is now present in six centers instead of eight.
- Evidence of overvaluation has increased from moderate to strong in Victoria, as fundamentals are not keeping up with higher prices. There is also moderate evidence of price acceleration and overheating, leading to strong overall evidence of problematic conditions.
- Conditions have improved in Regina, Montréal and Québec relative to home prices.
- Overbuilding has gone down from eight centers to six.
- In Moncton and St John’s, the supply of homes is adjusting to the demand.
- Toronto and Hamilton continue to face price acceleration, overvaluation and overheating. Price growth has intensified and demand is outpacing supply in the rental, resale and new home markets.
- Vancouver’s housing market continues to show strong evidence of problematic conditions due to moderate evidence of price acceleration and strong evidence of overvaluation.
- Markets in the Prairies continue to show moderate to strong evidence of overbuilding.
CMHC defines “problematic conditions” as imbalances in the housing market. Imbalances occur when overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration – or combinations thereof – depart significantly from historical averages. For examples, please consult the Overview section of the national report.
The complete HMA, including national, regional and CMA insight and analysis, is available on our website.
In order to access future Market Analysis Centre publications from CMHC, please subscribe to Housing Observer Online.
As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.
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“While the overall assessment for Canada has not changed from the previous quarter, the level of overvaluation has been downgraded to moderate. Regionally, eastern markets show weak evidence of overvaluation while this factor is stronger in western centres and markets in southern Ontario where economic fundamentals have not kept pace with recent price growth.”
— Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
“CMHC’s latest Housing Market Assessment continues to show strong evidence of problematic housing market conditions in Victoria. The last quarter of 2016 was dominated by strong sales and low supply which pushed house prices beyond levels that are supported by fundamentals such as income and population growth. For these reasons, we detected increased evidence of overvaluation in the Victoria market.”
— Eric Bond, Senior Market Analyst (Victoria), Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
“Rapid growth in house prices above rates warranted by economic and demographic fundamentals such as income and population growth has meant the continued detection of problematic conditions in the Toronto CMA housing market.”
— Dana Senagama, Principal Market Analyst (Toronto), Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Information on this release:
Jonathan Rotondo
Media Relations
613-748-2734
jrotondo@cmhc.ca
Original Source: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2017/2017-04-26-1200.cfm
Backgrounder
CMHC’s HMA analytical framework is designed to evaluate the extent to which there is evidence of problematic conditions in Canadian housing markets. The framework assesses housing market conditions and considers the incidence, intensity and persistence of four main factors:
- Overheating of demand in the housing market, wherein sales significantly outpace new listings.
- Acceleration in house prices, which could be partially reflective of speculative activity.
- Overvaluation in the level of house prices, which indicates that house price levels are not fully supported by fundamental drivers such as income, mortgage rates and population.
- Overbuilding of the housing market, when the rental market vacancy rate and/or the inventory of newly built housing units that are unsold is elevated.
Each of these factors is measured using one or more indicators of housing demand, supply and/or price conditions. Table 1 outlines the results from the previous release in January 2017 and the current April 2017 release.
| Overheating | Price Acceleration | Overvaluation | Overbuilding | Overall Assessment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2017 | Apr. 2017 | Jan. 2017 | Apr. 2017 | Jan. 2017 | Apr. 2017 | Jan. 2017 | Apr. 2017 | Jan. 2017 | Apr. 2017 | |
| Canada | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong |
| Victoria | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong |
| Vancouver | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Strong | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong |
| Edmonton | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Calgary | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Saskatoon | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Strong | Strong | Strong |
| Regina | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Weak | Strong | Strong | Strong | Moderate |
| Winnipeg | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| Hamilton | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Strong | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong |
| Toronto | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Strong | Strong | Weak | Weak | Strong | Strong |
| Ottawa | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate | Weak | Weak |
| Montréal | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Weak |
| Québec | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Strong | Moderate | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Moderate |
| Moncton | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Weak | Weak | Weak |
| Halifax | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak |
| St. John’s | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Weak | Moderate | Weak | Weak | Weak |
| Weak | Moderate | Strong |
Note 1: Colour codes indicate the level of evidence of problematic conditions: The HMA reflects a comprehensive framework that not only tests for the presence or incidence of signals of potentially problematic conditions, but also considers the intensity of signals (that is, how far the indicator is from its historical average) and the persistence of signals over time. Generally, low intensity and persistence are associated with a lower potential of upcoming problematic conditions. As the number of persistent signals increases, the evidence of a problematic condition developing increases.
Note 2: Results at the CMA level are not segmented by housing type or neighbourhood. They represent an assessment of the entire CMA. However, specific CMA reports provide further detailed analysis of these markets.
Note 3: The colour scale extends to red only for those factors that have multiple indicators signaling significant incidence, intensity and persistence of potentially problematic conditions. As a result, only overvaluation and overbuilding can receive a red rating, since they are assessed using more than one indicator.
Note 4: To ensure the framework is as current as possible, on a regular basis, we undertake a model selection process whereby our house price models for overvaluation are tested for statistical significance at the national and CMA level. The result of this process may change the number of indicators of a problematic condition from the previous assessment.
